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What if all ham/Amateur radio frequencies are occupied, as ham/Amateur radio operators are increasing.

If one ham radio operator wants to talk to other operator(s), at least one frequescy is needed which is not used by other operator(s). So, I think, as number of users(operators) increases day by day, year by year, number of frequencies will run out.

Is this a real concern? Is there any solution already exist? if yes what is that and how does that work?

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  • $\begingroup$ This question needs to look at modes and the bandwidth they require, as well. An interesting experiment would be take the bandplan for your country or area and derive the back-of-the-envelope maximum number of contacts that could be using a band at any one time in all specified modes. We'd have to make assumptions, of course, like only simplex comms, or assuming 2 contacts for repeater comms. $\endgroup$
    – user21417
    Jan 29 at 15:22
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    $\begingroup$ But the real answer is probably more like, "I don't think we have anything to worry about, and congested frequencies across all amateur bands would be the kind of bad luck we should all hope to have." The answer to your second question is that the bandplan arrangements are solutions to projected congestion. $\endgroup$
    – user21417
    Jan 29 at 15:25

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The number of licensed amateur operators is not increasing at (if increasing at all some years) anywhere near as fast as newer technology that allows more stations to communicate with less bandwidth.

The biggest increase in recent HF band usage has been in the vast number of operators using just a fixed 3 kHz slice of an HF band (FT8). And these modes allow multiple stations to occupy nearly the same frequency at nearly the same time. And there's plenty more bandwidth than 3 kHz legally available in most amateur bands (except 60M?).

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The amateur radio community is not growing as much as you think. At 67, I havent talked to or know a great many hams younger than me. I do know of at least 20 older than me that have passed away over the last few years. The thing people dont think about is those licenses still show up in the database for up to 10 years after the person has died here in the US. I also know many people that have their license, but are no longer active. People that have downsized, couples that now use their phones to do what they used to with 2 meter radios. Many repeaters in my area are quiet for days. The only activity is a weekly net with less than 10 people checking in. Between technology and attrition, there's plenty of room on the bands.

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While many "contacts" are two hams talking to each other, there are also larger groups, with 5-20 people all on the frequency communicating within the group rather than just pairs of people.

In other words, we multiplex not just frequencies but time on the same frequency as well.

Additionally, commercial VHF/UHF bands have already reduced channel bandwidth and spacing by half to fit in double the channels, and in many areas, amateur radio has not adopted similar measures. So if we were running out of space, there is already 20 year old technology that would allow us to similarly double the channels.

And, as already pointed out in the other answer, within the amateur community itself, we have already developed multiple methods that use a fraction of the bandwidth of existing commercial methods. FT8, PSK31, JS8call are only a few of the digital modes. We also have developed codec2 for voice communication which uses almost half the bandwidth of SSB, and this is 1/5 the bandwidth of what commercial radios use now.

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