I am reposting this question about the year 2016 here. This is 2019.

  • Are we now at the good or bad portion of the 11 years cycle?
  • What effect are we seeing now?
  • How large (strong/deep) is the effect during the peak and bottom of cycle?
  • What will change in coming years?

1 Answer 1


TL;DR: As of March 2019, we have not yet reached the minimum of the current solar cycle. But we are close.

From Spaceweather.com:

Thermosphere climate index Above: An historical record of the Thermosphere Climate Index. Mlynczak and colleagues recently published a paper on the TCI showing that the state of the thermosphere can be discussed using a set of five plain language terms: Cold, Cool, Neutral, Warm, and Hot.

“Right now, it is very low indeed,” says Mlynczak. “SABER is currently measuring 33 billion Watts of infrared power from NO. That’s 10 times smaller than we see during more active phases of the solar cycle.”

As 2018 comes to an end, the Thermosphere Climate Index is on the verge of setting a Space Age record for Cold. “We’re not there quite yet,” says Mlynczak, “but it could happen in a matter of months.”

  • $\begingroup$ We don't know what HF propagation conditions were like 20k years ago but IMO they were probably pretty bad during the coldest part of the last ice age and we appear to already be 10k years into the next ice age. c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/… $\endgroup$ Mar 6, 2019 at 15:27
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    $\begingroup$ That's very interesting how are you are comparing current climate conditions and radio propagation. Leath W7ABT $\endgroup$ Jan 1, 2020 at 8:20
  • $\begingroup$ I remenber back in the mid 90's when X class flares were common, and I once took the family out to see the Northern lights in Indiana... Looking SOUTH! $\endgroup$
    – user103218
    Jan 2, 2020 at 22:41

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