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I am reposting this question about the year 2016 here. This is 2019.

  • Are we now at the good or bad portion of the 11 years cycle?
  • What effect are we seeing now?
  • How large (strong/deep) is the effect during the peak and bottom of cycle?
  • What will change in coming years?
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  • $\begingroup$ Hey, a downvote already! Care to explain what I need to change here? $\endgroup$ – Mike Waters Mar 5 at 20:01
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    $\begingroup$ I didn't downvote, but I can see how this kind of question could lead to a lot of low-quality questions. ("Where did the year 1976 fall in the sunspot cycle for HF propagation?") Perhaps editing the question to make it generic and not specific to a year would improve it? $\endgroup$ – user3486184 Mar 15 at 22:00
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TL;DR: As of March 2019, we have not yet reached the minimum of the current solar cycle. But we are close.

From Spaceweather.com:

Thermosphere climate index Above: An historical record of the Thermosphere Climate Index. Mlynczak and colleagues recently published a paper on the TCI showing that the state of the thermosphere can be discussed using a set of five plain language terms: Cold, Cool, Neutral, Warm, and Hot.

“Right now, it is very low indeed,” says Mlynczak. “SABER is currently measuring 33 billion Watts of infrared power from NO. That’s 10 times smaller than we see during more active phases of the solar cycle.”

As 2018 comes to an end, the Thermosphere Climate Index is on the verge of setting a Space Age record for Cold. “We’re not there quite yet,” says Mlynczak, “but it could happen in a matter of months.”

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  • $\begingroup$ We don't know what HF propagation conditions were like 20k years ago but IMO they were probably pretty bad during the coldest part of the last ice age and we appear to already be 10k years into the next ice age. c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/… $\endgroup$ – Cecil - W5DXP Mar 6 at 15:27

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